Was the war over in spring?
Ukraine hopes for victory thanks to the “black swan”
Will the Ukrainian war finally end next year? A high-ranking Ukrainian politician believes in that. He should not only help the will of his own troops, but also a sudden turn in Russia.
The Ukrainian flag has flown again in Cherson for almost two weeks.
Anastasia Mamonovanews publisher
Almost two weeks ago, the Ukrainian army achieved its last great success: retaking the city of Cherson. This was after the Russian troops had announced their withdrawal.
Can another coup be expected in the near future? Yes, believes Volodymyr Havrilov (64), Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine. In an interview with the Sky News television channel, he says that the Ukrainians may return to Crimea this year. The peninsula has been under Russian control since its annexation in 2014.
Victory is a “matter of time”
Besides that. Havrilov makes other extremely optimistic forecasts. He believes that the entire war with Russia could end by late spring. And with a victory for the Ukrainians. It’s “just a matter of time,” he says.
Your country will never stop fighting until it is victorious. Even an atomic bomb and the harsh winter would not stop the soldiers. But is the fighting spirit he propagates enough to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin (70)?
“Putin disappears – physically or politically”
Unlikely. That is why Havrilov is waiting for the so-called “black swan”: this means an event that no one expects, but which has great consequences.
“I think Russia may face a ‘black swan’ at home, inside Russia.” This, in turn, could help the Ukrainians succeed in Crimea, she says. It is very possible that his troops will be in the Crimea by the end of December and cannot be ruled out, she adds.
But what exactly is this “black swan” event in Russia supposed to be? “Putin disappears. For some reason. Physical or political,” Havrilov replies. Or in combination with a “society very disappointed in its losses.”
no winter break
Be that as it may, one thing is certain for Ukraine: “There is a decision within society in Ukraine that we will go all the way,” says Havrilov. That is why Ukraine is currently preparing the winter offensive with a lot of pressure. There is no such thing as a break.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently wrote in its daily report: “Winter weather could inflict disproportionate damage on the ill-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but the well-equipped Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensive due to to winter time”. (men)